GOLD extended gains after hitting a record in the previous session as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the US central bank will likely cut interest rates this year.
Bullion traded near Tuesday’s all-time high of US$2,141.79 an ounce. The precious metal has climbed almost 5 per cent over the last five sessions, and was also bolstered on Wednesday by US private payrolls data showing that companies boosted hiring in February.
Gold’s ascent has taken some in the market by surprise, particularly since there hasn’t been any major change in expectations for when the Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs. Swaps markets show a 62 per cent chance of a cut in June, compared with 58 per cent at the end of February. Lower rates are typically positive for bullion, which doesn’t offer any interest.
In prepared testimony to a House panel on Wednesday (Mar 6), Powell told lawmakers that said it will likely be appropriate to begin lower borrowing costs “at some point this year,” but made clear they’re not ready yet.
The current rally is somewhat counterintuitive, Morgane Delledonne, head of investment strategy for Europe at Global X ETFs said in a note prior to Powell’s remarks. The prospect of lower borrowing costs tends to make non-yielding assets more appealing, but the timing of the jump amid rising uncertainty about the Fed rates and a strengthening dollar suggests the rally might be driven by other factors, she said.
If persistent, the price action could be signalling a risk-off shift in investors’ sentiment, Delledonne said.
Beyond rates, other factors have contributed to gold’s strength. Macro funds, which haven’t been active in the market until recently, were a new force of buying. Bullion’s role as a haven asset is also being aided by elevated Middle East tensions and disruptions to global shipping, China’s persistent economic woes and the US presidential election at the end of the year.
The risk of a US stock market correction – flagged by weak manufacturing data on Friday – may have persuaded some investors to move out of equities and into gold, said Ole Hansen, a commodity strategist at Saxo Bank.
Spot gold rose 0.4 per cent to US$2,136.41 an ounce as of 2.11 pm in London. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2 per cent. Silver, platinum and palladium all rose. BLOOMBERG
