MOVE over interest rates, it is time for corporate earnings to fuel the next leg of the record-breaking stock market rally.
Wall Street strategists are optimistic that Corporate America will deliver another bumper earnings season as global economic growth picks up. Even pricey technology stocks – the primary profit engine in the previous quarter – are again expected to be supported by solid results. So while the S&P 500 Index is coming off its best first quarter in five years and continues to trade near its all-time high, market experts are reluctant to bet against further gains.
“It’s way too early to apply the brakes on the US stock rally,” said Manish Kabra, head of US equity strategy at Societe Generale. “The momentum has been backed up by the earnings outlook, and I expect that to continue for at least one more quarter.”
Kabra is among a slate of Wall Street strategists who have boosted their year-end forecasts for the S&P 500 in recent weeks.
Earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to post a “healthy” 10 per cent gain in the first quarter in headline numbers from a year ago, according to Deutsche Bank strategists led by Parag Thatte. And earnings upgrades from analysts have outnumbered downgrades in the first quarter, according to a Citigroup index.
“There’s a likelihood that Q1 earnings season is still going to be pretty strong, especially given just how strong economic growth was in the first quarter,” said Cayla Seder, macro multi-asset strategist at State Street.
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The rising profit forecasts lessen worries that that the broad equities benchmark is in a bubble. After a 9 per cent rally this year, S&P valuations are well above their 20-year average and the index is already about 4 per cent higher than the average target of strategists tracked by Bloomberg last month.
Meanwhile, investors are buying in, as allocations to stocks have surged since an October low on the back of upbeat projections for economic growth, according to Deutsche Bank. Exposure is now expected to flatline as companies go into a blackout period for stock buybacks ahead of the reporting season. But the levels are not high enough to warrant a sell-off in the absence of a negative catalyst, a team at the firm led by Thatte wrote in a note.
Other strategists concur. Confidence among equity investors is at the highest in nearly two years, but sentiment is still far from the “euphoric” levels that typically signal a top, Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian said earlier this month.
“When we talk about sentiment, my underlying view is that whether sentiment is really negative or whether sentiment is really positive, sentiment can stay in either direction so long as the information circumstance is as it is,” said Citigroup strategist Scott Chronert.
There is, of course, skepticism brewing among some market participants after Federal Reserve officials last week raised the possibility of keeping interest rates high for longer than expected. Those comments sparked the biggest one-day sell-off in the S&P 500 in almost two months last Thursday (Apr 4). The volatile week also prompted long-complacent traders to look at the hedges they have ignored for months.
The stock market’s tepid start to April has led JPMorgan Chase & Co clients to question whether the rally has peaked and if the recent price action portends something “much worse in the economy”, said Andrew Tyler, head of US market intelligence at the bank, in a note. However, he is not convinced.
“I think none of these,” Tyler wrote to clients. “It is possible that we could see a 2 to 3 per cent pullback, but you need to see either deterioration in the macro story or an earnings season that shows negative sequential growth.”
The reversal in stocks on Friday following a hotter-than-expected US jobs report also shows how eager traders are to buy into any pullback.
Additionally, forecasts for tech earnings remain strong, with analysts expecting the sector to report that profits soared 20 per cent in the first quarter. At the same time, the outlook for the more economically sensitive sectors is brightening, suggesting a broader, healthier rally as the laggards catch up.
For Charlie Ashley, portfolio manager at Catalyst Capital Advisors, the stock market’s fate hinges on these projections.
“Multiples are extended right now, so earnings strength needs to continue,” Ashley said. “If there is softness in earnings, that’s going to be a warning signal because that’s likely followed by a weakening US consumer and a weakening economy.” BLOOMBERG
