Commodities hit highest in a year, posing new inflation threat

A KEY gauge for raw materials prices rose to the highest level in more than a year, throwing a wrench in central banks’ efforts to tamp down inflation.

The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index – which tracks 24 energy, metal and agricultural contracts – inched up on Wednesday (May 15) to the highest reading since April 2023.

Raw materials have been on a tear this year, driven by a mix of supply disruptions in certain markets, rising geopolitical tensions and a push to hedge against higher-for-longer inflation. Crude oil, one of the biggest components of the index, has largely benefitted from strong demand and concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East, while precious metals such as gold and silver have drawn renewed interest from risk-adverse investors. Copper has also been climbing.

Earlier Wednesday, the overall consumer price index in the US rose 0.3 per cent from the prior month and 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Shelter and petrol accounted for over 70 per cent of the increase, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in the report.

“Overall, the commodities rally reflects a late-cycle economic environment where demand remains robust but supply constraints are evident,” Sam Vogel, chief operations officer of Cayler Capital, said in a mid-April e-mail as prices continued their steady rise. In oil specifically, the commodity trading adviser expects a “very strong supply-demand balance in the second half of the year”.

Still, the index is below the peak it hit during the third summer of the global pandemic, when massive stimulus spending and widespread bottlenecks across supply chains drove prices higher. That 2022 rally was largely driven by surging natural gas and grain contracts, which were upended by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. BLOOMBERG