AP MOLLER-MAERSK, a bellwether for global trade, increased its full-year guidance for a fourth time in less than six months, citing stronger demand and higher freight rates caused by supply chain disruptions from attacks in the Red Sea.
Maersk now sees underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of US$11 billion to US$11.5 billion this year, topping both its prior forecast range and the average US$10.1 billion estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
It also reported revenue of US$15.8 billion in the three months through September. Underlying Ebitda was US$4.8 billion and underlying Ebit of US$3.3 billion, the company said, citing preliminary unaudited figures. Full interim results will be published on Oct 31.
The company had already raised its 2024 profit forecast in May, June and August, as the Red Sea conflict was having a larger than previously expected impact on the world’s supply lines. The Houthi attacks have since late last year forced container vessels to sail south of Africa, absorbing some of the overcapacity in the container industry, which in turn has helped boost container rates.
Maersk said earlier this month it will start its vessel-sharing partnership with Hapag-Lloyd in 2025 by sailing south of Africa, indicating the container lines expect the Red Sea to remain unsafe well into next year.
On Monday (Oct 21), the Danish shipping line also said it expects global container demand growth to be 6 per cent this year, up from a range of 4 to 6 per cent seen previously. Maersk shares opened 2.4 per cent higher in Copenhagen on Tuesday, before erasing the gains to drop 0.6 per cent at 9:25 am
Still, medium-term prospects for the shipping company remain somewhat gloomy. Maersk faces potential overcapacity in the container shipping market in 2025 to 2026 and possibly longer, while there is a latent risk that the situation for container-shipping companies will worsen when the conflict in the Red Sea is resolved, Morten Holm Enggaard, an analyst at Jyske Bank, said in a note.
“For the long-term investor, Maersk is probably an attractive purchase at this time, but in the short term, the downside is greater than the upside in our view,” which is driving Jyske’s hold recommendation, he said.
Maersk, which controls about one-sixth of the world’s container trade, has in recent years sought to grow in land-based transport and freight-forwarding businesses – where profit margins historically have been higher than at sea. Still, last quarter it dropped a bid for Deutsche Bahn’s logistics unit DB Schenker, which Danish peer DSV ended up acquiring for 14.3 billion euros (S$20.4 billion). BLOOMBERG
