[TOKYO] Japan’s biggest carmakers are looking at a hit of more than US$19 billion from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs that have left the global auto industry reeling.
The industry’s top brands warned of a weaker financial performance this year, or withheld guidance altogether, as they tallied up the potential cost of Trump’s ever-changing policies on imports of cars and auto parts. The impact is likely to linger for years as the uncertainty spurs carmakers to re-think their North American investment and production.
Toyota Motor, the world’s biggest carmaker, is likely to be the worst hit. It said last week it expects a 180 billion yen (S$1.6 billion) impact to operating income in April and May alone. The figure could be as much as US$10.7 billion for the whole fiscal year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Pelham Smithers analyst Julie Boote forecasts between US$5.4 billion and US$6.8 billion.
Nissan Motor and Honda Motor both estimate a US$3 billion impact. Subaru, which imports roughly half of the cars it sells in the US, also skipped annual guidance as it predicted a US$2.5 billion dent. Mazda Motor forwent a full-year outlook.
Most vehicles imported into the US were hit with a 25 per cent duty on Apr 3, while most auto parts become subject to that levy as at May 3. There are some executive orders that prevent tariffs from doubling up, but the policies are expected to add thousands of US dollars to the price of cars in the US.
The US is the biggest market for Japan’s top carmakers, which utilise factories in Mexico or Canada to build vehicles that are then sent across the border. But Trump’s import tariffs now make that an expensive, if not unviable, practice and left companies struggling with the costly dilemma of how to overhaul their supply chains to escape the duties.
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Japanese carmakers’ are now hoping that trade negotiations will offer a reprieve as talks with the US likely accelerate later this month. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has vowed not to accept any deal that does not address auto tariffs, given the sector’s importance for the economy.
In the meantime, companies are already rethinking their operations.
Honda said this week it’s postponed by two years plans to spend C$15 billion (S$14 billion) to build out its electric vehicle (EV) supply chain in Canada, including a factory that could produce 240,000 cars a year. It’s already shifting production of the hybrid version of its Civic from Japan to the US. Almost 40 per cent of the roughly 1.4 million cars it sold in the US in 2024 were imported, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Meanwhile, Subaru said it’s reviewing all of its investments, including the development of EVs. Nissan has halted US orders for SUVs built in Mexico, and Mazda is stopping exports to Canada of one model that’s manufactured at an Alabama factory that’s a joint venture with Toyota.
For now, Toyota appears to be taking a longer-term view. The carmaker has not shifted any output since tariffs took effect, and chief executive Office Koji Sato said last week it will consider building out its production footprint in the US in the medium to long term.
The tariffs are a particularly hard blow for Nissan, which is already in the throes of its worst crisis in a quarter century. The carmaker has vowed to cut 20,000 jobs and shut seven production facilities.
Even with the extensive restructuring, Nissan finds itself in urgent need of a financial lifeline after talks to combine with Honda collapsed earlier this year.
“Nissan’s plight could have been minimised if it had taken these steps sooner,” said Bloomberg Intelligence senior auto analyst Tatsuo Yoshida. “The impact of these measures, compared to what other carmakers are doing or even what Nissan has done in the past, is unclear.” BLOOMBERG
