[HOUSTON] Oil prices eased on Monday as loadings resumed at Russia’s Novorossiysk export hub after a two-day suspension at the Black Sea port that had been hit by a Ukrainian attack.
Brent crude settled 19 cents, or 0.3 per cent, lower at US$64.20 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude eased 18 cents, or 0.3 per cent, to US$59.91.
Both benchmarks rose more than 2% on Friday to end the week with a modest gain after exports were suspended at Novorossiysk and a neighbouring Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, affecting the equivalent of 2% of global supply. Novorossiysk resumed oil loadings on Sunday, according to two industry sources and LSEG data. However, Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil infrastructure remain in focus.
“Early weakness was due to the resumption of loadings in Novorossiysk, but was short-lived,” said Scott Shelton, energy specialist at TP ICAP Group.
Ukraine’s military said on Saturday that it hit Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery, and Kyiv’s General Staff said on Sunday that the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region had also been struck.
“Investors are trying to gauge how Ukraine’s attacks will affect Russia’s crude exports in the long term,” said Fujitomi Securities analyst Toshitaka Tazawa.
INVESTORS MONITOR IMPACT OF WESTERN SANCTIONS
Investors are also monitoring the impact of Western sanctions on Russian supply and trade flows. The U.S. imposed sanctions banning deals with Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft after November 21 to try to push Moscow towards peace talks over Ukraine. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that Republicans are working on legislation that will impose sanctions on any country doing business with Russia, adding that Iran could be added to that list. OPEC+ this month agreed to increase December output targets by 137,000 barrels per day, the same as for October and November. It also agreed to a pause in increases in the first quarter of next year. An ING report said the oil market was expected to remain in a large surplus through 2026. But it warned of rising supply risks from Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy facilities and flagged Iran’s seizure of a tanker in the Gulf of Oman after it transited the Strait of Hormuz, an important route for about 20 million bpd of global oil flows.
The choppiness in crude oil prices is likely to remain as the geopolitical risk stays elevated against the expectations of more global crude supplies, said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.
Latest positioning data shows that speculators increased net long positions in ICE Brent by 12,636 lots over the past reporting week to 164,867 lots as of last Tuesday.
ING said this was driven predominantly by short-covering and suggested that participants were reluctant to be short amid supply risks related to sanctions uncertainty.
Meanwhile, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo expects oil prices to remain supported.
“Rising oil-on-water levels have not yet led to an increase in on-land inventories,” Staunovo said in a note. “While we expect prices to dip to the lower part of the trading range over the coming months, we hold a more constructive outlook for the second half of 2026.”
Oil prices are expected to decline through 2026, Goldman Sachs said on Monday, citing a production surge that will keep the market in a large surplus of around 2 million barrels per day. REUTERS
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