Overseas funds are piling money into Indian stocks, marking a strong return to the US$5 trillion market after election-related uncertainty earlier this year triggered a brief hiatus.
At US$8.5 billion, net foreign purchases this quarter are poised to be the highest since the middle of 2023, data compiled by Bloomberg show. With bets on policy continuity restored after Prime Minister Narendra Modi secured a third term in power and India’s weighting surpassing China’s in some global indexes, the outlook for flows looks promising, especially as the Federal Reserve has started cutting interest rates.
The surge in inflows is also a sign of investors’ growing comfort with India’s equity valuation – which is expensive relative to emerging-market peers as well as its own history – as the nation’s benchmark NSE Nifty 50 Index heads for a ninth straight annual gain.
“Despite higher valuations, Indian equities remain attractive relative to other markets where growth prospects are more subdued,” said James Cheo, chief investment officer for South-east Asia and India at HSBC Global Private Banking & Wealth in Singapore. “India’s growth story is supported by strong corporate performance and favourable economic conditions.”
India has increasingly been touted as the next engine of global growth as China’s economy falters amid a lack of strong stimulus, a property crisis and persistent deflationary pressures. The International Monetary Fund expects India to become the third-largest global economy by 2028, while Bloomberg Intelligence says it can be the top contributor to worldwide growth by then.
The South Asian nation’s gross domestic product expanded 6.7 per cent from a year earlier last quarter. While that fell short of some estimates, it was far ahead of China’s figure of 4.7 per cent.
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September looks set to be the fourth straight month of overseas flows into India. Foreigners had offloaded some US$1 billion worth of shares in the April-June quarter. While election results in early June showed Modi’s party failed to win an absolute majority, it secured sufficient support from key allies to form a coalition government and return to power.
The MSCI India Index has climbed 7 per cent this quarter in US dollar terms, while a broader gauge of emerging-market equities is up about 2 per cent.
The Indian measure, on course for a sixth straight quarterly gain, is twice as expensive as the MSCI Emerging Markets Index based on one-year forward earnings valuations. The Nifty 50 Index is trading at a multiple of about 21 times, versus a 10-year average of 18 times, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
IPO boom
Overseas money is also chasing returns in India’s booming primary market, the world’s busiest this quarter. Local firms are seeking to benefit from an expanding economy and while smaller initial public offerings have dominated fund-raising this year, billion dollar deals are now coming to the market.
“Foreign investors, who had shunned India due to their short-term investment horizons and due to the allure of China’s cheap valuations, are now coming back,” said Deven Choksey, managing director at KR Choksey Shares & Securities in Mumbai. “Rotation toward China has failed once again and now the money is coming back to where the growth is.”
As stocks have continued to rally, the cost of hedging against potential declines in the Nifty 50 gauge has also increased. It’s now about 45 per cent higher than the average for the past year.
Market watchers are also on guard for any signs of populism as Modi’s party has announced cash handouts in some states ahead of regional polls. Some advisers to India’s rich investors, such as Avendus Wealth Management and Julius Baer Wealth Advisors, say they have advised clients to trim allocations to pricier pockets of the market.
For now, India is winning favour among global funds thanks also to a stable currency. Frequent interventions by the nation’s central bank have transformed the rupee from Asia’s most volatile currency to one of the least.
“The return of overseas investors shows that a market delivering returns can’t be ignored for long,” said Sumeet Rohra, a fund manager at Smartsun Capital in Singapore. “India’s weight has also risen substantially in MSCI indexes.” BLOOMBERG
