OIL advanced after Opec+ agreed to push back its December production increase by one-month and tensions again escalated in the Middle East.
Brent rose as much as 2 per cent to more than US$74 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate climbed above US$70. The producer group had intended to begin returning 180,000 barrels a day from next month, but they will now keep supply restrained for the rest of the year.
Meanwhile, Iran escalated its rhetoric against Israel with its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warning of a “crushing response” in a speech on Saturday (Nov 2). The Wall Street Journal reported that Tehran told allies an attack would come after Tuesday’s US presidential vote but before January’s inauguration and would not be limited to missiles and drones, as two previous attacks were.
“Concerns that Opec was poised to oversupply a fragile market have been weighing significantly on sentiment,” RBC Capital Markets analysts including Helima Croft said in a Nov 3 note. “A continuing cycle of retaliatory strikes between Israel and Iran raises the risk that oil facilities will be caught in the crosshairs.”
Oil prices have become increasingly volatile, with concerns of an oversupply next year and lacklustre demand in top importer China weighing against unrest in the Middle East, which supplies about a third of the world’s crude. While futures fell early last week after the strike by Israel on Iran avoided energy infrastructure, they later pared the decline on concerns the move lower was too strong. BLOOMBERG
