CHINA’S central bank governor reaffirmed plans for a supportive monetary policy to promote growth next year, as the economy faces fresh challenges from a looming trade war with the US during Donald Trump’s second term.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will “adhere to an accommodative monetary policy stance and orientation” in 2025, Governor Pan Gongsheng said at a financial forum in Beijing on Monday (Dec 2), according to a statement published by the central bank.
Pan reiterated the central bank will “step up counter-cyclical policy adjustment”, a phrase typically referring to measures to boost the slowing economy. The PBOC will also use various tools to keep liquidity ample and lower borrowing costs for companies and residents, he added.
Monetary policy support will be critical to China’s economy next year as the US president-elect has vowed to impose steep tariffs on Chinese goods. That threatens the outlook of exports, which have been a key growth driver for China since the pandemic.
The yuan fell to the lowest level in about a year versus the greenback on Tuesday, as traders added bearish wagers on lacklustre China growth amid risks of higher US tariffs.
The world’s No 2 economy has shown some signs of stabilisation in recent weeks, after the central bank and other ministries unleashed a package of bold measures to shore up growth and the stock market in late September.
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The PBOC made outsize cuts to interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), which determines the amount of money banks must set aside in reserves. It’s expected to lower them again in the coming months, with the RRR cut potentially coming by the end of this year.
At the Monday event, Pan also announced changes to the scope of M1 money supply, saying it would improve the statistics. The measure reflects the actual purchasing power in the economy.
The revised definition for the metric, which previously comprised mainly cash and corporate demand deposits, will include individual demand deposits as well as funds stored on payment platforms, such as China’s popular Alipay and WeChat digital wallets.
Seen as an indicator of business activity and dynamism in the past, M1 growth slowed significantly since last year and began contracting early this year, even as the broad money supply M2 continued to expand.
The adjustment will likely narrow M1’s decline even though the downward trend will probably persist, according to analysts. In October, outstanding M1 fell 6.1 per cent from a year ago based on the previous statistical scope. It would have fallen only 2.3 per cent based on the updated method, according to estimates by Caitong Securities.
The change reflects major changes in the financial market and aligns with the statistical method of other major economies, the PBOC said. BLOOMBERG
