INVESTORS yanked more than US$1 billion from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Tuesday (Feb 25), marking the biggest one-day outflow since the cohort’s debut last January.
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (ticker FBTC) posted the steepest outflows among these funds, followed by the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s as Bitcoin’s price has been faltering, with investors shunning riskier assets in the face of uncertainty. As a group, the Bitcoin funds shed roughly US$2.1 billion over six consecutive days – the longest stretch of outflows since last June.
The world’s largest digital asset has come under pressure this week, with its price sinking to its lowest level since mid-November after hitting an all-time high earlier this year. Other cryptocurrencies also slid, with an index tracking top digital tokens on pace for its largest four-day drop since early August.
While Bitcoin funds are seeing an exodus, investors took advantage of a recent stock sell-off to add nearly US$7 billion combined in one session to the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY).
“Digital assets are still very retail-flow driven, despite institutional flows over the past 12 months,” said Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered. “This sets them apart from equities and fixed income. In my opinion, this means the average hand is weaker or has less deep pockets to ride losses. Hence more pain is likely.”
Kendrick predicts Bitcoin will trade even lower – at around the US$80,000 range – at which point he will “buy the dip”.
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To Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital-asset research, the record outflows likely stem from hedge funds unwinding a popular trading strategy called the basis trade, which exploits differences in prices between spot and futures markets. Some have used the ETFs to profit from the cryptocurrency’s volatility or offset a short position in derivatives.
“This strategy involves buying Bitcoin spot (often through ETFs) while simultaneously shorting Bitcoin futures to lock in a low-risk return,” Sigel said. “However, the profits from this trade have recently collapsed, making it far less attractive. As a result, hedge funds that were using ETFs for this strategy have likely closed their positions, leading to significant redemptions.”
It’s also possible that investors newer to the crypto arena, who are generally considered more likely to panic, have driven the outflows, according to Stephane Ouellette, chief executive officer and co-founder of FRNT Financial.
“Those investors are less indoctrinated into the space, simply due to the fact that they do not have their own infrastructure to hold physical BTC,” he said. “I think it’s too strong to characterise ETF outflows as investors ‘not buying the dip’ in BTC.” BLOOMBERG
