Maersk cuts global container market outlook on tariff war

[COPENHAGEN] AP Moller-Maersk, the Danish container giant, lowered its forecast for the global transport market rattled by Donald Trump’s trade war.

Maersk sees global container volume market in the range of 1 per cent decline to growth of 4 per cent this year, according to a statement on Thursday (May 8), citing “increased macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.” The forecast compares with growth of “around 4 per cent” predicted back in February.

Maersk, which controls about 14 per cent of the world’s container fleet and operates 60 ports, is among the global companies hit by Trump’s protectionist shift, which is upending decades of progress in free trade. Still, the company has also said that it expects a transport boost in Europe as the continent, led by Germany, speeds up investments – including in defence.

Container-line profits have been boosted by the Red Sea crisis, which has now lasted almost 18 months, because companies taking the longer diversion route south of Africa eases some of the vessel overcapacity in the industry. 

The disruption in the Red Sea is expected to continue throughout the rest of the year, the Danish company said on Thursday. In February Maersk had indicated that would mean hitting the high end of its 2025 profit outlook.

Maersk still expects 2025 underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization in a range of US$6 billion to US$9 billion.

“With trade tensions flaring up and uncertainty on the rise, global supply chains are once again in the spotlight,” chief executive officer Vincent Clerc said in the statement. BLOOMBERG