THE US dollar rose to a fresh three-month high against major peers as traders pushed back bets for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut following surprisingly hot US inflation figures.
Since data on Tuesday (Feb 13) showed the US consumer price index (CPI) in January gained 3.1 per cent from a year earlier, versus an expected 2.9 per cent rise, money markets have priced in no Fed cut in March and a 53 per cent chance of a cut in June, according to CME Group.
The US dollar index, which measures the US currency against six major peers, traded 0.05 per cent higher at 104.91, having touched a fresh three-month high of 104.97.
“Hot US January CPI has closed the door for a March Fed rate cut. While PCE data will be more important, the debate has shifted to May or June for the start of the Fed’s easing cycle, unless banking risks escalate,” said Saxo’s Head of FX Strategy, Charu Chanana.
“This has made dollar strength more durable as risks of SNB (Swiss National Bank) and ECB (European Central Bank) rate cuts ahead of the Fed could gain traction.”
UK inflation
Against the British pound, the US dollar rose 0.35 per cent to US$1.2548, briefly touching an eight-day high after data showed UK inflation did not accelerate in January as expected. This may relieve some of the pressure on the Bank of England (BOE) to keep rates where they are for longer.
UK inflation stood at an annual rate of 4 per cent in January, unchanged from December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast an increase to 4.2 per cent.
“Base effects should now set up a very sharp fall in the annual inflation rate in the next four months,” said Michael Metcalfe, head of Macro Strategy at State Street Global Markets.
“This may yet be enough based on January’s benign reading to get the inflation rate near enough to target to allow the BOE to begin its easing cycle in June.”
Money markets see a 51 per cent chance of a BOE rate cut in June, and 75 per cent chance of one in August, according to LSE Group data.
Yen watch
Meanwhile, the US dollar weakened against the yen after Japan’s currency officials warned against what they described as rapid and speculative yen moves.
“We are watching the market even more closely,” Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki told reporters. “Rapid moves are undesirable for the economy.”
Asked whether authorities could intervene in the currency market, Suzuki left his office without a word.
Earlier, Japan’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said the nation would take appropriate actions on forex if needed.
The US dollar fell 0.1 per cent against the yen to 150.60, and was not too far from a three-month high reached against the Japanese currency on Tuesday. The US dollar has added about 10 yen in price since the start of this year.
Japan intervened in the currency market three times in 2022 when the yen plunged to 32-year lows near 152 yen to the US dollar, conducting rare dollar-selling, yen-buying intervention.
Elsewhere, the euro was little moved after a slew of eurozone economic data. It was down 0.06 per cent at US$1.0702, after briefly dipping to a fresh three-month low of US$1.0695.
Eurozone employment rose by 0.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter and by 1.3 per cent year on year in the fourth quarter. According to a Reuters poll, employment had been expected to rise 0.2 per cent quarter on quarter and 1.1 per cent year on year.
Economic growth in the region was flat in the last three months of 2023 against the previous quarter and up 0.1 per cent against the same period of 2022.
Leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin rose 3.1 per cent to 51,230, trading near its highest level since late December 2021.
It has surged 34 per cent from a low on Jan 23. REUTERS
