THE ongoing slide in the ringgit puts it a whisker away from a record low, and continued weakness in Malaysia’s exports as well as US dollar strength may just push the currency past that level.
The Malaysian ringgit is about 2 per cent away from reaching 4.885 per US dollar, a level last seen in 1998 when the Asian financial crisis ravaged the region’s currencies. The ringgit has dropped nearly 4 per cent this year.
“There is a risk that the ringgit will reach a new all-time low,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ). “Exports are not recovering, unlike those in other Asian economies, and economic growth may remain lacklustre.”
China’s floundering economy is hurting the South-east Asian nation’s exports, which have declined for a 10th consecutive month in December.
While Malaysia still holds a current-account surplus, its ratio to gross domestic product has fallen to near the lowest in 20 years, limiting support for the currency, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Trade data for January is due on Tuesday (Feb 20).
Slumping exports have also weighed on Malaysia’s economic growth. Coupled with concerns over political stability following alleged attempts to bring down Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s administration and the persistent US dollar strength, the outlook for the ringgit looks grim.
Traders will keep an eye on inflation data this week, which will offer clues on Bank Negara Malaysia’s ability to maintain interest rates and support the currency should the greenback’s strength prevail, as investors pare bets on the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts.
Key level
The ringgit hit 4.7958 in October, the weakest since 1998. A decline beyond this level may bring the RM4.82 to RM4.85 per US dollar range into focus, according to a Bloomberg technical analysis.
“If the dollar continues to head higher, either due to further push-back in the Fed cut cycle or a bigger risk-off event, then the risk for the ringgit will persist,” said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at OCBC in Singapore.
Most analysts are forecasting a stronger ringgit by the end of the year as Malaysia’s economic growth gains momentum. OCBC sees the currency recovering to RM4.60 per US dollar, while ANZ predicts a level of RM4.45.
Bank Negara is also expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged through 2024, even as the Fed eases its monetary policy.
“This would eventually narrow the yield differentials between US and Malaysia, providing support for the currency,” said Wong. “There’s room for the ringgit to recover some lost ground.” BLOOMBERG
