THE Bank of Japan received a sizeable number of requests to halve monthly bond buying in coming years under a quantitative tightening (QT) plan due this month, minutes of a meeting between the bank and financial institutions showed on Friday (Jul 19).
A significant number of the participants also urged the BOJ to taper bond purchases gradually to avoid upending the bond market, according to the minutes of the discussions held between the central bank and bond market participants on Jul 9 to 10.
The findings will be taken into account when the BOJ lays out a detailed plan at its Jul 30 to 31 policy meeting on how it will slow its huge bond purchases and trim its US$5 trillion balance sheet.
“The BOJ’s taper plan will likely be designed in a way that doesn’t surprise markets,” a source familiar with the central bank’s thinking said, a view that was echoed by two more sources, suggesting that the BOJ’s QT plan will roughly be in line with the dominant view of market participants.
While views among the financial institutions varied, a majority of the opinions shown in the minutes called for the BOJ to trim monthly bond buying to around three trillion (S$25.6 billion) to four trillion yen, from the current six trillion yen per month.
A few favoured making a big cut in the initial stage of the tapering process, though a larger number of opinions called for a gradual reduction made in several stages, the minutes showed.
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“It’s desirable for the BOJ to taper in several stages,” as reducing purchases sharply could heighten volatility in the bond market, one participant was quoted as saying.
At its previous meeting in June, the BOJ decided to lay out a detailed bond taper plan at its Jul 30 to 31 policy meeting that covers a period of around one to two years.
The move would follow the BOJ’s decision in March to end eight years of negative interest rates, and underscore its resolve to steadily phase out its massive stimulus.
Japanese bond market players surveyed by Reuters earlier this month said they expect the BOJ to slow monthly bond buying to around 4.65 trillion yen on average in the initial year, and to 3.55 trillion yen in the second year.
The BOJ, which still keeps interest rates at near zero, lags behind its global counterparts in whittling down crisis-era monetary support as it has focused on supporting a fragile economy.
After buying bonds aggressively for a decade in a bid to reflate growth, the BOJ has seen its bond holdings balloon to 576 trillion yen – roughly half of total Japanese government bonds sold in the market. REUTERS
