THE dollar rose on Thursday (Aug 8) after new US labour market data showed that unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, easing fears of an imminent recession.
The greenback’s rise was most prominent against the yen, following a sharp drop the day before in a volatile week in which investors have had to digest the unwinding of popular carry trades and how Japanese monetary policy might evolve.
Initial jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week ended Aug 3, the labour Department said on Thursday, suggesting fears that the labour market is unravelling were overblown.
The yen was last down 0.4 per cent at 147.205, having slid 1.6 per cent on Wednesday, after the Bank of Japan’s Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida played down the chance of a near-term hike in interest rates that would typically boost the currency.
The sharp moves in the yen pushed the dollar index, which measures the US currency against six others, including the yen, to a weekly high, before backing off. It was last up to 103.21, above Monday’s seven-month low of 102.15.
Still, market participants were bracing for more volatility.
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“Regardless of the fact that risk is a bit higher today, the degree of these swings that we’re having on a seemingly daily basis, or at least every other day, I don’t think is a healthy sign,” said Eugene Epstein, head of structured products, North America, at Moneycorp.
The yen started the week by scaling a seven-month high of 141.675 per dollar, a far cry from the 38-year lows where it traded in early July, after soft US jobs data last week stoked recession worries and roiled investors.
A surprise rate hike from the BOJ last week also forced investors to bail out of carry trades, in which they borrow the yen at low rates to invest in dollar-priced assets for higher returns. This unwinding gave the yen a boost.
A summary of opinions voiced at the BOJ’s July policy meeting showed on Thursday that some board members cited a need to keep raising interest rates, with one saying they should eventually be increased to at least around 1 per cent.
The contrasting opinions from the summary and Uchida on whether the BOJ will continue to raise rates, or pause as a result of market volatility, underscores the delicate task facing the central bank and will likely keep investors skittish.
“As the market pulls back from the edge of the brink … US interest rates have firmed up, and I think this is going to give the dollar/yen a little bit more of a lift,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.
Some analysts believe this unwinding in the carry trade may have further to run, and is possibly only halfway there, which could add to volatility.
Even if the US Federal Reserve does deliver a steep rate cut, as most traders are expecting in September, and the BOJ another increase, there would still be an incentive to use the yen to fund other trades.
The Swiss franc, another currency that was used to fund carry trades and that benefited from the unwinding momentum earlier this week, was down 0.5 per cent at 0.866 per dollar, after dropping more than 1 per cent on Wednesday.
The euro was down 0.1 per cent at US$1.0917, while sterling was up 0.5 per cent at US$1.275.
Investor focus will now be on the US consumer price inflation report for July due next week, as well as comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the central bank’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Aug 22-24.
“Investors need to brace for a bumpy ride,” said Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC.
The Australian dollar rose 1.1 per cent to US$0.659, while the New Zealand dollar was up 0.3 per cent at US$0.601.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was up 7.6 per cent to US$59,334.95, rebounding after falling below the US$50,000 mark on Monday. Ether was last up 9.7 per cent to US$2,577.70. REUTERS
