BOTH Donald Trump’s and Kamala Harris’s political platforms appear negative for US equities, with the Democratic candidate’s plans to raise corporate tax seen having the biggest impact, according to Citigroup strategists.
A team led by Scott Chronert found that the Harris platform would hit the fair value of US stocks by 4 to 6 per cent. “This is mostly a function of the direct implication of higher corporate tax rates in a Harris outcome,” they wrote in a note.
Meanwhile, the impact of the planned policies of the Republican candidate are seen between 0 per cent and negative 4 per cent. Trump’s programme would trigger the biggest hit to the US fiscal deficit which is set to become a major issue moving forward, the strategists said.
They said such moves are only likely for stocks if the elected candidate’s party also sweeps both the Senate and the House of Representatives. “A split congress with either candidate mitigates most of the nearer term risk to fair values,” they said.
Trump promised to cut the federal corporate tax rate to 15 per cent from 21 per cent while Harris proposed to lift the rate to 28 per cent. Goldman Sachs Group strategists estimate that the US election could have a big impact on S&P 500 earnings, with Trump’s planned tax cuts lifting earnings while Harris’s plans reducing profits.
Separately, strategists at BNP Paribas reckon US import tariffs of 10 per cent globally and 60 per cent on China could hit the S&P 500 between 9 per cent and 12 per cent, depending on how central banks adjust their policies.
Neither campaign responded immediately to Bloomberg’s request for comment outside of regular working hours in Washington DC.
Overall, forces such as investor sentiment towards a soft landing, the Federal Reserve’s actions and AI tailwinds, exert a more significant impact on US equities than the Nov five ballot, Citi said. “Election outcomes and impacts are deemed incremental to that,” according to Chronert. BLOOMBERG
