ARABICA coffee topped US$4 per pound in New York for the first time, as concerns over tight global supplies fuel a dizzying rally that’s doubled prices over the past year.
The move stands to accelerate the fallout for consumers as ever-pricier beans feed through into more expensive brews at retail. The run-up has already hurt demand in major markets and is starting to curb once-booming consumption growth in emerging economies.
Fears have grown about future output in top-grower Brazil after a prolonged drought. Strong exports from the nation earlier in the season are compounding the current strain on supply, and local farmers have sold more of their crop than usual at this point in the year, leaving questions over how much will be left to ship.
“We should still have some additional volatility until the next crop arrives,” said Pavel Cardoso, the president of Brazil’s Coffee Industry Association. Money managers have pilled up bullish bets in arabica coffee recently, and while Cardoso says some of that momentum could fade after the start of a new harvest in May, supply concerns remain.
There are also worries about output in Vietnam, the largest producer of the cheaper robusta bean, after fields were also hit by unfavourable weather. Together, that’s expected to pull global stockpiles to a 25-year low, the US Department of Agriculture forecasts.
The most-active arabica futures contract climbed as much as 4.6 per cent in New York on Wednesday (Feb 5), later trimming some of the gains and settling at US$3.9775 per pound, up 3.8 per cent from the prior session.
Inventories at exchange-monitored warehouses have been declining. However, a recent increase in the amount of coffee pending grading suggests that record prices are attracting more beans to the exchange, according to Rabobank analyst Carlos Mera. BLOOMBERG
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