AUSTRALIA’S central bank remains some way off easing monetary policy, governor Michele Bullock said, as inflation is proving persistent and will only return back to the target range late next year.
“The board remains vigilant to upside risks to inflation,” Bullock said in her opening statement to a parliamentary panel in Canberra on Friday (Aug 16). “It is premature to be thinking about rate cuts.”
The comments come a week after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the key rate at a 12-year high of 4.35 per cent and maintained its hawkish rhetoric. Money markets and economists reckon the RBA’s next move will be a cut, though they are split on the timing. Traders reckon December will be the beginning of the easing cycle, while the consensus of economists is that it will only begin in 2025.
Supporting the RBA’s caution, data this week showed Australia’s labour market continued to add jobs at a solid pace while wage growth remains elevated. Separate figures pointed to a rebound in consumer sentiment while business confidence is still resilient.
“Circumstances may change, of course, and the outlook is uncertain,” Bullock told lawmakers. “But based on what the board knows at present, it does not expect that it will be in a position to cut rates in the near term.”
That assessment is a key reason why the RBA is seen trailing major global counterparts when it comes to easing, setting Australia up as a potential outlier.
The RBA has kept its policy rate steady since last November and remains in data-dependent mode, with its forecast showing inflation will only fall back within the 2 to 3 per cent target next year. Bullock has expressed a willingness to be patient as she seeks to slow inflation without choking off economic growth.
“We have been trying to balance bringing inflation back down over a reasonable timeframe, without inflicting unnecessary damage on the labour market,” she said on Friday. “And the board’s judgment to date has been that policy is currently sufficiently restrictive to do that.”
The RBA next meets Sep 23 to 24 when it’s expected to stand pat for a seventh straight meeting. BLOOMBERG
