AN ASSASSINATION attempt; a late candidate swap; campaign hacking; flip-flopping polls – what else awaits in 2024’s wild US election?
Investors worldwide fear the worst. But there is good news: Stocks likely will not suffer the drama. Falling election uncertainty should power global stocks till the year end, lifting the Straits Times Index (STI).
In February, I showed you that US election years boost stocks. America’s S&P 500 rose in 83 per cent of them since 1925, averaging 11.4 per cent gains in US dollars. This bullish force extends globally: US stocks’ correlation to developed markets elsewhere is 0.83 – strong, considering 1.00 means identical movement and -1.00 the exact opposite.
