TWO years ago, central banks around the world were engaged in a battle against high inflation that resulted in an aggressive and synchronised jump in interest rates. Now, many policymakers are reversing course – but in a less coordinated way as price increases slow at different paces in various countries.
Central bankers in some emerging markets began cutting rates last year. European officials started a slow and cautious easing of interest rates just a few months ago. The biggest outlier had been the US Federal Reserve, which had kept rates high for more than a year and throughout the summer. On Wednesday (Sep 18), it joined the crowd and cut rates – in a big way – for the first time since the early days of the pandemic.
“A few months ago, we were still in the space of American exceptionalism,” said Katharine Neiss, an economist at PGIM Fixed Income, an asset manager. There was the expectation that the resilience of the US economy would lead to higher rates for longer, she said. “That was creating a lot of stresses and strains for the rest of the world,” she added.
If the Fed’s rate cut on Wednesday can ensure a so-called soft landing for the US economy, in which inflation is brought down without a severe recession, then that is “really good news for the rest of the world”, Neiss said. It also eases global financial conditions and reduces pressure on currencies that were taking a hit from the US dollar’s strength.
Now, the dominant theme around the world is central banks lowering interest rates as inflation slows, falling within sight of their targets, and economic growth weakens. Still, policymakers have been cautious about moving too quickly and reigniting inflationary pressures.
The Bank of Canada has cut rates three times since June. Last week, the European Central Bank cut interest rates for the second time in three months. The Bank of England held rates steady on Thursday after cutting just once last month.
Central banks in Norway and Sweden are also expected to hold rates at their meetings later in September, emphasising their gradual approach. Among emerging markets, the South African central bank cut rates for the first time in four years on Thursday.
Still, there are global outliers. Japan belatedly responded to rising inflation by raising rates in July. Investors suggest that the Bank of Japan is more likely to raise rates again in the near future. Nigeria has been raising rates this year as inflation has jumped and, late Wednesday, Brazil’s central bank raised rates amid concerns that faster economic growth could be inflationary. NYTIMES
