[SINGAPORE] US tariffs are expected to wreak havoc on global supply chains, but logistics giant DHL is not that worried.
DHL’s Strategy 2030 plan, announced in September last year, aims to boost its revenue by 50 per cent by 2030. That translates to a revenue target of roughly 123 billion euros (S$183.6 billion), up from an income of around 82 billion euros received in 2023.
Despite the current tariff turmoil, its revenue target remains unchanged as it prepares for growth in fast-growing regions like South-east Asia, in the areas of life sciences and healthcare as well as e-commerce, among others.
Thus, US policies can significantly impact global trade but cannot dictate its future, Bilbao said, and healthy global trade will continue to fuel long-term growth.
A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU
Friday, 8.30 am
Asean Business
Business insights centering on South-east Asia’s fast-growing economies.
Just another thing to manage
The report forecasts that even with a worst-case, severe tariff situation, trade growth would dip to zero for one year, but still expand from 2027 onwards.
As a company that specialises in moving things around despite challenges, tariffs are just another thing to manage, in DHL’s experience, said Bilbao.
“The tariff situation doesn’t change (our 2030 target). We have had Covid-19, we have had the Suez Canal situation… there are always disruptions. But global trade and economies are very resilient,” said Bilbao.
It helps that DHL’s global strategy sees it targeting high-growth regions – India, South-east Asia, the Middle East and Mexico – which do not include the USA.
The company’s size and global footprint have helped inform its wide view.
With around 600,000 employees and a presence in around 220 countries, DHL is one of the largest logistics companies in the world, alongside key competitors Federal Express and UPS.
Founded in 1969 in the US, it was one of the earliest international courier companies. Deutsche Post acquired the company in 2002; it trades on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange as DHL Group.
Internationally, it has four main segments: express for time-sensitive deliveries, global forwarding and freight for larger cargo, supply chain for B2B logistics and warehousing, and e-commerce for larger-scale, non-time sensitive deliveries.
If anything, prior disruptions have better prepared it for an era of continued uncertainty.
“There has been a continued trend in the last few years for resilience and companies realising that the old ways of working with just time and cost is not sustainable… the recent events only continue to reinforce that (supply chain) resilience is necessary.”
Expand in expanding places
Building in supply chain resilience is why DHL is spending big money in Asia-Pacific with an “aggressive plan” that is “investing ahead of the curve”.
“We have the ambition where the group growth expectation is 50 per cent. We want to double the size of our business in Asia-Pacific all the way through to 2030 to make that happen,” said Bilbao.
According to the company, its supply chain segment is expected to perform “significantly above” the 4-6 per cent average annual growth in global contract logistics until 2030.
Globally, DHL has spent around 1.4 billion euros in recent years to expand its supply chain facilities, with Asia-Pacific as the main beneficiary aside from Latin America.
Since 2022, DHL has invested almost a billion euros in shoring up its supply chain facilities in Asia-Pacific.
For example, in India, it spent 500 million euros to expand warehouse space by around 1.1 million square metres (sq m) to a total of two million sq m by 2026.
In 2023, it announced another 350 million euros to increase warehouse space by 25 per cent to around two million sq m in South-east Asia, including facilities in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore.
As a business-facing operation, Bilbao sees many opportunities in the region for DHL Supply Chain’s services, which spans general warehousing and transport to customised solutions for individual clients.
One example is China car brands expanding into Asia-Pacific and setting up factories to serve the market.
While electric vehicles require far fewer components than conventional cars, the component supply chain of batteries and more computer chips is significantly different, while there will also be a need to handle those batteries at the end of their life.
“The supply chain logic changes and we need to adapt, invest ahead and predict what is going to happen,” he said.
Additionally, its infrastructure investments will also work across the company’s business segments – for instance, in e-commerce, where cross-border and international purchases are becoming predominant.
DHL reports that the new energy sector, which includes wind, solar and electric vehicles, will have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 15 per cent from 2023 until 2030, while global e-commerce’s CAGR will be 7 per cent over the same period.
Health is wealth
A more specialised aspect of the supply chain segment that DHL is targeting is life sciences and healthcare (LSHC) in the region.
According to research firm Baker McKenzie, Asia-Pacific’s medical market is expected to reach US$138 billion in spending by 2027, as a result of increased spending power, a larger middle class, and rapidly ageing population.
Cognitive Market Research said that the region will be the fastest-growing LSHC market in the world, with a CAGR of 13.2 per cent from 2024 to 2031.
DHL expects LSHC revenue to double in the long term. In 2024, healthcare tallied five billion euros in global revenue for the company – it projects an additional five billion euros by 2030.
While the sector has conventional aspects, like pharmaceuticals and medical devices, it is the more advanced, specialised segments like biopharma, cell and custom therapy, as well as clinical trials, that will deliver more growth in the future.
DHL’s forecasts show a 5-6 per cent CAGR for conventional life sciences from 2023 to 2030, but more than 10 per cent for advanced life sciences.
“The shift from being mass logistics to focused and dedicated one is a big transformation, it has a lot of expertise and investment…(LSHC) is being transformed at a very high speed.”
He gives the examples of gene-tailored therapies that are sent to individual patients at a certain temperature and time, or doctors who require a specific tool for surgery.
That is why DHL has two billion euros of global investment in the sector over the next five years – with 500 million euros earmarked for Asia-Pacific alone.
A good example of where that money has gone can be found in Singapore.
On Apr 14, DHL opened a 10 million euro, 8,200 sq m Pharma Hub facility in Singapore that has specialised handling capabilities, but also incorporates automation and predictive analytics for improved efficiency. It ups the company’s total LSHC warehouse space to 36,000 sq m.
The recent moves put DHL’s tally of regional LSHC facilities at more than 80 across 13 countries, with more on the way.
More such hubs and other facilities will follow in Asia-Pacific, with new LSHC sites in South Korea, India and New Zealand and upgrades to existing facilities in Australia, totalling at least 56 million euros.
DHL’s CEO Tobias Meyer, who was in town to inaugurate the facility, summed it up: “Life science and healthcare in Asia is top of our agenda and the Singapore investment absolutely fits into that.”
