[HONG KONG] Equities stuttered on Thursday as investors await fresh developments in trade talks, with US partners looking to reach deals to avoid Donald Trump’s tariff blitz, while oil extended losses on hopes for an Iran nuclear deal.
With excitement from the China-US detente running out of legs, the search is on for fresh catalysts to drive a rally that has pushed markets back above the levels seen before US President Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” bombshell.
News that Beijing was suspending some non-tariff countermeasures on US entities for 90 days following the superpowers’ weekend truce did little to inject much more enthusiasm.
With the tariffs crisis calmed for now, dealers can turn their attention to hard economic data, hoping for an idea about the initial impact of Washington’s trade policies.
After figures on Tuesday showing US inflation came in a little below forecasts in April, eyes are on wholesale prices and retail sales due later Thursday, as well as earnings from retail giant Walmart.
However, analysts pointed out that the real impact would not be seen until May’s figures are released and warned that there were still plenty of bumps in the road ahead.
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“The trade truce may hold for now, but the tariffs announced – many still around 30 per cent – are not disappearing,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo.
“These are ‘sticky’ policies that can reshape supply chains, corporate margins, and even inflation. In fact, the market is now preparing for a second shock: weaker economic and earnings data in the third quarter as tariffs bite.”
She added that “the muted market reaction the day after the truce suggests investors may be digesting the idea that ‘the best news may already be out’”.
While Wall Street enjoyed a broadly positive day, with the S&P and Nasdaq up but the Dow down, Asia largely reversed.
Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Wellington, Taipei and Manila were all down.
Oil prices sank around two per cent on signs that Iran could agree to certain US demands to reach a nuclear deal.
An adviser to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday that Tehran could accept far-reaching curbs on its atomic programme in exchange for sanctions relief, according to NBC News.
Ali Shamkhani said in an interview that his country could agree to never develop nuclear weapons, give up stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and allow inspectors to nuclear sites – among other steps – if economic sanctions were lifted, NBC said.
The commodity had already dropped on Wednesday on bets that demand would increase as tensions between China and the United States ease and the tariffs are wound back. AFP
