[SINGAPORE] The market share of Chinese shipyards dropped by almost a third from January to June this year amid concerns about upcoming fees on Chinese ships entering US ports, shipping trade body Bimco said.
However, China is unlikely to be unseated from its leading position in the near future because of capacity constraint elsewhere as well as the small share of Chinese ships visiting the US, analysts said.
Bimco data published on Wednesday (Jul 16) showed that Chinese shipyards bagged 52 per cent of orders placed in the six months, lower than the 72 per cent market share they had enjoyed in July to December 2024.
China holds a leading position in the global shipbuilding industry – except in the cruise vessel sector – while South Korea and Japan are the second and third-largest shipbuilding nations respectively, said Bimco.
Filipe Gouveia, shipping analysis manager at Bimco, attributed the dip in China’s market share to concerns over the impending port fees on Chinese ships in US ports.
Port fees, which will be effective from October 2025, will impact both Chinese owners and operators, as well as ships built in China. But smaller Chinese-built ships and those that make short-haul voyages will be exempted from fees.
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Even if shipowners try to avoid ordering ships in China due to United States Trade Representative (USTR) fees, there is a limit to the capacity available outside the North Asian country, Gouveia said.
The shipbuilding capacity constraint has already led to a large order book with long lead times, especially for larger ships, container ships, gas carriers and cruise ships. Out of this year’s orders, 31 per cent are expected to be delivered in 2027, 38 per cent in 2028 and 23 per cent thereafter.
Said Gouveia: “China’s dominant position in shipbuilding is unlikely to significantly change soon, but the country could face increasing competition in the medium term.
“Meanwhile, although the US and India currently have limited shipbuilding capacity, both governments are actively working to strengthen their domestic industries. However, even if they succeed, it will take time for them to scale up production.”
Tan Hua Joo, container industry analyst at data provider Linerlytica, expects China to retain its global dominance in boxships despite the USTR actions. This is because less than 25 per cent of the global containership fleet call at US ports currently.
Although the Chinese market share is slightly down from last year, China’s shipyards continue to dominate new containership orders in 2025. Tan cited Linerlytica data which indicated that Chinese yards bagged more than 60 per cent of new orders in 2025.
More than 75 per cent of the global fleet will not be affected by the US port fees, and will therefore shipowners will not be deterred from proceeding with newbuilding plans in China, he added.
Also, total containerships calling at US ports will shrink further if the USTR proceeds with the planned fees, believes Tan, as operators will switch to increased transhipments and shorten their routes in order to reduce the impact from those fees.
A drop in global ship contracting and a shift in the types of ships being ordered have also contributed to the lower market share for China, Bimco said. If global ship contracting had not significantly dropped during the start of the year, China’s market share of new orders would have likely been larger.
Orders slowed significantly for tankers, gas carriers and bulkers amid weaker freight rates. Containerships and cruise ships were the only large sectors where building increased.
South Korea has notably overtaken China in crude tanker shipbuilding so far this year, after pipping the North Asian rival in gas carriers in 2024.
Earlier in May, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding posted a drastic cut in its order wins for the first quarter of 2025 – with only six vessels worth US$300 million, compared with 38 vessels for US$3.3 billion for the year-ago period.
The Chinese company commented then that US policies and global tariff actions prompted customers to adopt a wait-and-see approach, pushing back their decisions to order ships.
Mitsui OSK Lines, owner of the world’s largest fleet of liquefied natural gas carriers, earlier said it is hard to buy Chinese vessels for the time being as the US ramps up scrutiny of China’s shipbuilding industry.
