Anthropic’s IPO Could Mint New Billionaires: Why Amazon May Be the Biggest Winner

Amazon’s convertible notes in Anthropic had a principal value of $6.2 billion but were carried on Amazon’s books at $97.9 billion as of June 30, 2026. The company’s total Anthropic holding was valued at $190.4 billion, according to figures reported by GeekWire.

The figures put Amazon in a strong position ahead of Anthropic’s expected initial public offering (IPO). But its potential payoff extends beyond shares: Amazon also has a long-term cloud contract with the AI company. Neither the accounting valuation nor the spending commitment guarantees an equivalent cash return.

Amazon’s Anthropic Stake Has Three Sources of Value

Amazon has invested about $18 billion in Anthropic: $8 billion in convertible notes issued between 2023 and 2025, and $10 billion in non-voting preferred stock from the startup’s two most recent funding rounds.

The notes could convert into as many as 1.84 billion Anthropic shares, equivalent to about 10.9% of its fully diluted shares. Amazon’s stake is subject to a 12% cap, which it can waive, and its holdings carry no voting rights.

Amazon disclosed in its second-quarter 2026 Form 10-Q that the estimated fair value of its convertible notes rose from $45.8 billion at the end of 2025 to $97.9 billion on June 30, 2026. The company also reported an associated unrealized gain of $92 billion.

These are accounting values, not cash Amazon has received. Anthropic recorded a $72.4 billion non-cash charge in the first half of 2026, largely reflecting changes in the fair value of convertible notes and similar instruments.

Anthropic’s last private valuation was $965 billion. Expectations for its IPO have ranged from about $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion, though no final price has been set. At a $965 billion valuation, a 1% stake would be worth about $9.65 billion on paper. A higher public valuation could increase Amazon’s holding value, while a lower one could reduce it.

The AWS Contract Is Revenue, Not Profit

Anthropic has committed to spend at least $110 billion on Amazon Web Services (AWS) over 10 years, through April 2036 regardless of actual usage, according to CNBC’s reporting on the filing.

Amazon described the agreement in its quarterly filing as an expansion of its existing multi-year commitment, including obligations related to AWS chips. The contract could provide a long-term source of cloud revenue, but it does not guarantee $110 billion in profit. Amazon must supply the computing capacity and infrastructure Anthropic needs, and its earnings will depend on the cost of delivering them.

AWS reported revenue of $42.2 billion in the previous quarter, with one estimate putting its operating margin at about 39%. That company-wide margin does not establish how profitable Anthropic’s contract will be.

Google Has a Competing Claim to the Upside

Amazon is not the only technology company positioned to benefit from Anthropic’s growth. Alphabet disclosed an Anthropic stake valued at roughly $124.3 billion as of June 30, below Amazon’s reported $190.4 billion holding. Alphabet’s stake is capped at 14.99%, and it has invested about $23 billion overall.

The cloud comparison is less favorable to Amazon. Anthropic has committed to spend at least $114.5 billion with Google through 2033, slightly more than its $110 billion AWS commitment despite the shorter period.

GeekWire’s analysis of Anthropic’s filing points to more than $750 billion in computing commitments across providers and infrastructure partners. The agreements indicate the scale of computing capacity Anthropic expects to need while spreading potential commercial benefits across multiple companies.

Amazon therefore has the larger disclosed paper holding, but that does not automatically make it the biggest commercial winner. Google has a substantial investment and a larger minimum cloud-spending commitment. Both companies are also developing competing AI models, a conflict flagged in Anthropic’s filing.

An IPO Will Not Automatically Put Cash in Amazon’s Hands

A public listing would establish a market price for Anthropic’s shares, but it would not automatically turn Amazon’s paper gains into cash. Amazon disclosed that it expects a customary lock-up period after an IPO and would remain subject to securities-law restrictions afterward. The filings reviewed do not say when Amazon could sell its shares, and the company has not said it plans to do so.

There is also valuation risk. If Anthropic lists below its last private valuation or public investors take a less optimistic view of its growth, the reported value of Amazon’s holdings could fall. Analysts have argued that expectations around Anthropic are already reflected in Amazon’s stock price.

The eventual payoff will depend on Anthropic’s IPO price, how many shares Amazon receives when its notes convert, and whether Anthropic continues to use the AWS capacity it has committed to buy. Amazon has a substantial investment and a long-term cloud contract, but the $190.4 billion figure remains a reported valuation, not a realized payday.